Strengthening evidence-based policies for the resilience of European agriculture and forestry and related supply chains against crises and systemic risks

Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes: societal and political actors have a better understanding of how European agriculture and forestry, as well as agri-food and forest-based supply chains, are exposed to and impacted by a combination of complex systemic risks and crises; EU, national, regional and local decision-makers have access to improved analytical capacity and recommendations on policy instruments and strategies for assessing, preventing and managing systemic risks and crises; the compounding, cascading and amplifying roles of climate change for different kinds of risk and crises and in constraining options for crisis response are better understood, facilitating their systematic integration into decision-making; the compounding, amplifying and/or mitigating role of trade for different kinds of risk and crises involving supply chain effects is better understood. Scope: The 2020 and 2025 Strategic Foresight Reports [1] put forward resilience as a compass for EU policies. Resilience is defined as the ability not only to withstand and cope with challenges but also to undergo transitions, in a sustainable, fair, and democratic manner. Adopting a transformative, proactive and forward-looking approach to resilience is needed for the EU to thrive in turbulent times, anticipate new challenges and create a safe space for citizens and businesses. Against this background, proposals should target several systemic risks and crises (e.g., sanitary, environmental, economic, geopolitical, biodiversity, demographic, technological) that are causing, or likely to cause, significant socio-economic impacts directly or indirectly affecting European agriculture or forestry, and agri-food or forest-based supply chains, considering potential compound, cascading and amplifier effects under climate change. The actions under this topic are relevant to the EU policies related to the EU Vision for Agriculture and Food, the EU Forest Strategy, the common agricultural policy, and the forthcoming European Climate Adaptation Plan. Proposals should: improve analytical capacity on: the exposure of the agricultural or forestry sectors and of agri-food or forest-based supply chains and their agents, including consumers, to (interacting) systemic risks and crises, including compound, cascading and amplifier effects related to climate change and trade disruptions; the assessment and measurement of the propagation of shocks and short-, medium- and long-term impacts (social, economic, environmental including biodiversity) of those (interacting) systemic risks and crises on the agricultural or forestry sectors and on agri-food or forest-based supply chains and their agents, at different scales (local to global) and considering the vulnerability of different groups (e.g. age, gender or other social factors). Proposals should take into account the specificities of different types of supply chains, e.g., in terms of length, organisation, critical dependencies, considering also the role of ecosystem services and, where relevant, intergenerational time scales; explore a range of effective socio-economic and technological (e.g., advanced digital technologies) options and identify leverage points to further develop integrated prevention, preparedness, management, adaptation and transformation strategies and pathways that encompass different temporal (short to long term) and spatial (global to local) scales to improve the resilience at each critical stage of the agri-food or forest-based supply chains; analyse those options with regard to societal and institutional preconditions, the costs and benefits, at different levels, of action versus non-action, as well as coherence, synergies and trade-offs with competitiveness, health and sustainability objectives. Proposals should either address Area A: Agriculture and agri-food supply chains, or Area B: Forestry and forest-based supply chains. The area (A or B) should be clearly indicated in the application. Proposals should capitalise on existing relevant research findings and tools. They should also ensure complementarities with other relevant EU-funded projects, including from the EU Missions on Adaptation to Climate Change and on Soil, and ensure synergies with other relevant EU initiatives and processes (e.g., Resilience Dashboards [2] ). Proposals should include a dedicated task, appropriate resources and a plan on how they will collaborate with other projects selected under this topic (e.g., by participating in joint activities, workshops, as well as common communication and dissemination activities, etc.). Proposals selected in Area A are also expected to collaborate with the projects selected under the topic HORIZON-CL6-2027-03-GOVERNANCE-01: Strengthening the resilience of European farmers through improved capacity in coping with risks and crises. Proposals should support collaborative and interdisciplinary work, involving the effective contribution of social sciences and humanities (SSH) disciplines in combination with science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) disciplines. Proposals are encouraged to consider, where relevant, the data, expertise and services offered by European research infrastructures [3] in the environmental, biological and food domains. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) may participate as member of the consortium selected for funding. The role of the JRC would be to contribute with knowledge and expertise on concurrent and recurrent climate hazards (especially drought and heatwaves) and their amplifying effects in terms of impacts in the agricultural and forestry sectors, and to support exploration of high-impact low-probability events, including those linked to crossing tipping points. [1] 2020 Strategic Foresight Report - European Commission 2025 Strategic Foresight Report - European Commission [2] Resilience Dashboards - European Commission [3] The catalogue of European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) research infrastructures portfolio can be browsed from ESFRI website https://ri-portfolio.esfri.eu/

This destination will support the EU Commission priority ‘Sustaining our quality of life: food security, water and nature’. This destination is expected to foster mitigation and adaptation to climate change on land, in the ocean and water, and therefore contribute to Cluster 6 in support of the ambition for Europe to become the first climate-neutral and climate-resilient continent by 2050. The destination supports the evidence-base for the implementation of the European Green Deal and its climate and biodiversity objectives included in the European Climate Law, the Nature Restoration Regulation, the European Ocean Pact, the Arctic policy, the amended Regulation on land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), the Regulation on Carbon Farming and Carbon Removals. The destination also fosters the development and deployment of innovative solutions and approaches to strengthen Europe’s water security to deliver on the European Water Resilience Strategy, support the implementation of EU water legislation and contribute to the European Climate Adaptation Plan. The destination has complementarities with Cluster 5, climate science and the European Missions on Adaptation to Climate Change and Restore our Ocean and Waters by 2030. R&I actions under this destination will encourage international cooperation and help achieve international commitments concerning land, water, and ocean for climate action under the Paris Agreement, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), the Treaty on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement) and the Antarctic Treaty. Strengthening the ocean-climate-biodiversity-cryosphere nexus is a priority for the EU, as well as safeguarding the integrity and resilience of the ocean and polar regions as vulnerable parts of the Earth System. R&I will support and close key knowledge gaps through research that contributes substantially to the implementation of key international treaties and the work of various international bodies, assessments, and other initiatives. The Destination supports unlocking the unique assets for research and innovation of the EU outermost regions, in line with the EU strategy for outermost regions [1] . Expected Impact : Proposals for topics under this destination should set out a credible pathway contributing to “ Fostering mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in areas and sectors covered by Cluster 6” , and more specifically to one or more of the following expected impacts : Strengthened knowledge and understanding and reduced uncertainty about the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the short, medium, and long term, and its impacts on the Global Ocean and the Earth System are available and used, alongside identified commensurate management responses to prevent the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic cryosphere from reaching a point of no return, including enabling protecting, restoring and sustainably managing marine and coastal ecosystems and preventing pollution. Effective policy mixes and multi-level governance capable of anticipating a changing Arctic and enabling a just and sustainable transition for all, engaging society at large and balancing economic, social and environmental goals, thanks to improved evidence-based knowledge, tools and science-society-policy interfaces. Carbon footprint and greenhouse gas emissions from land and water activities (inland, marine and coastal) – including primary production – and infrastructures are minimised in rural, urban, and coastal areas while the monitoring, reporting and verification of the emissions is improved. Medium- and long-term adaptation and resilience of water infrastructure, agriculture and forestry to challenges related to climate change is further addressed with regard to scientific knowledge, public policy and economic practices. [1] COM(2022) Putting people first, securing sustainable and inclusive growth, unlocking the potential of the EU’s outermost regions.

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