The transformation of EU farms under the AI revolution

The aim of the contract is to understand how EU farms may transform over the next 10 to 30 years during the “AI revolution,” with the goal of identifying how AI-driven farms may operate and the potential structural transformations and disruptions in EU agriculture. To achieve this, the study will develop an analytical framework combining farm typologies, AI scenarios, and focus questions to assess how different types of farms may evolve under alternative AI pathways. Representative farm typologies will reflect the diversity of EU farming systems in terms of production orientation, land use, size, labour structure, and resource allocation, while AI scenarios will outline possible technological developments over the next 10–30 years based on literature and expert knowledge. The study will analyse how farms may adapt their management and organisation under each scenario and identify potential transformations and disruptions at the farm level, including changes in land, labour, capital, assets, data, and market integration. The analysis will rely primarily on qualitative methods, drawing on literature and expert input through interviews, focus groups, workshops, and desk research, with validation by stakeholders and domain experts.