Advancing integrated scenarios and prediction models for informing transition to a nature positive society
Develop integrated scenarios and ecosystem prediction models to support nature-positive policies and systemic transformations in Europe.
This call funds research to create advanced models and scenarios predicting ecosystem responses to human pressures. It aims to support long-term, nature-positive policies across multiple sectors. Projects should involve case studies in at least two European biogeographic regions and engage stakeholders for policy relevance.
Likely relevant for
- Environmental research institutes
- Ecological and biodiversity modelling groups
- Climate change and sustainability researchers
- Policy-oriented research organizations
- Universities with interdisciplinary environmental programs
- Earth observation and remote sensing experts
Project signals
What it funds
- Development of integrated prediction and scenario frameworks linking ecosystems and key economic sectors
- Advancement of ecosystem prediction models incorporating multiple drivers of biodiversity loss
- Model intercomparison experiments to improve robustness and transparency
- Use of long-term monitoring data to enhance model reliability and relevance
- Testing IPBES Nature Futures Framework applicability in Europe
- Case studies in at least two European biogeographic regions with global relevance
- Stakeholder involvement in scenario co-creation and policy applicability
- Assessment of socio-economic transitions, equity, and justice in scenarios
- Public communication of scenarios via interactive simulation tools
- Coordination with EC Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity and ESA FutureEO projects
Expected outcomes
- Improved understanding of ecosystem responses to human-induced pressures
- Integrated scenario frameworks capturing biodiversity, climate, food, water, health, energy, and economy interactions
- Advanced ecosystem prediction models applicable across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems
- Consistent framework for model intercomparison and cross-scale scenario building
- Enhanced usability of modelling outputs for policy, business, and international assessments
- Recommendations addressing knowledge gaps in IPBES and IPCC assessments
- Strengthened interdisciplinary collaboration across bio-physical and socio-economic disciplines
Who can apply / participate
- Research organizations
- Universities
- Public bodies
- Private companies
- Non-profit organizations
- Consortium composition and eligibility must be checked in the Horizon Europe Work Programme and General Annexes
- Participants from EU Member States and Associated Countries are eligible
- Specific provisions may apply for non-EU/non-Associated countries
- Applicants must comply with Horizon Europe eligibility criteria as described in General Annexes
- Exact consortium size and partner eligibility details
- Specific national eligibility conditions
Must check before shortlisting
- Eligibility of applicant types and consortium composition
- Specific budget and lump sum funding conditions
- Deadline and submission requirements
- Geographical scope and case study requirements
Money
Expected EU contribution per project is approximately €5 million lump sum for 2026. Two grants are expected under this topic.
- Total EU contribution per project — 5000000EURLump sum funding for 2026
Application notes
- Single-stage submission model. Proposal page limits and layout as per Horizon Europe General Annexes and Application Form guidelines.
- Proposal page limits and layout described in Annex A and Annex E of Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes
- Eligible countries listed in Annex B of Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes
- Financial and operational capacity requirements in Annex C
- Evaluation criteria and procedures in Annex D and Annex F
- Lump sum funding conditions as per Decision of 7 July 2021
- Prepare proposal according to Horizon Europe Application Form templates
- Submit proposal via the Funding & Tenders Portal before deadline
- Ensure compliance with admissibility and eligibility conditions
- Coordinate with consortium partners and stakeholders
- Include dedicated tasks for coordination with EC Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity and ESA FutureEO projects
- Check eligibility of participants and consortium composition carefully
- Ensure case studies cover at least two European biogeographic regions
- Budget and lump sum funding rules must be followed
- Stakeholder engagement and policy relevance are critical for evaluation
Derived from official EU Funding portal source · updated 22 Jun 2026, 15:46 UTC. Use this as a shortlisting aid; the official call text remains authoritative.
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Official source text
Fine print from the EU source record. Expand when you need the original wording.
Topic description
Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to all the following expected outcomes: advanced knowledge and understanding how ecosystems respond to multiple plausible futures shaped by human-induced pressures, supporting the design of long-term, nature positive and equitable policies; strengthened collaboration across bio-physical , socio-economic and humanities disciplines, resulting in more integrated and robust scenario frameworks that capture interactions, trade-offs and synergies across biodiversity, climate, food, water, air, health, energy and economy; advancement of comprehensive ecosystem prediction models and scenario-based assessments that integrate direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss, applicable across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems; a consistent and transparent framework for model intercomparison and cross-scale scenario building, improving the relevance and usability of modelling outputs for policy , business and international assessments (e.g., IPBES, International Panel on Climate Change - IPCC). Scope: To address the objectives of the European Green Deal, the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030, the EU Nature Restoration Regulation and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), as well as Sustainable Development Goals, actions funded under this topic should support the scientific development of A) integrated scenarios, B) predictive models and C) model intercomparison experiments for Member States and Associated Countries. Developments should be verified in case studies covering at least 2 European biogeographic regions [1] and spanning key economic sectors to inform systemic policy transformations and enable long-term planning for a nature positive society. Proposals should: design and develop components of a European integrated prediction and scenario framework to forecast how natural ecosystems respond to a wide range of human-induced ecosystem interactions including climate change, pollution, socio-economic transitions such as conflicts, pressures, and policy interventions. These frameworks should link ecosystem functions with key economic sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, and test their resilience and tipping points under multiple plausible futures; make use of long-term monitoring data across biodiversity, land use, climate, and socio-economic variables to improve reliability and real-world relevance. They should also quantify uncertainty in model projections and ensure scenarios incorporate dynamic feedback loops between ecosystems and socio-economic systems, and identify risk distributions relevant to frontline socio-ecological communities; test and assess the suitability of the IPBES Nature Futures Framework for European application and align modelling approaches with international efforts and assessments under IPBES and IPCC. Proposals should seek to address knowledge gaps identified by the relevant IPBES assessments and if appropriate provide recommendations to policymakers; advance model intercomparison capabilities to improve robustness, consistency and transparency in scenario-based assessments. To this end, the suitability of remote sensing data for scalability and intercomparison between different models and across different regions should be assessed. Proposals should include case studies that cover at least two European biogeographic regions with global relevance to verify the developed scenarios, models and intercomparison experiments. Case studies should consider different geographical scales and explore ecosystem tele coupling across Europe and beyond. Scenario development should involve relevant stakeholders—including public authorities, economic sectors, and civil society—in co-creating narratives and ensuring policy applicability. Socio-economic transitions and equity and justice considerations concerning trade-offs and distributional impacts across regions and communities (i.e. across biodiversity, climate, food, water, air, health, energy and the economy) should be explicitly addressed in scenario assessments. Proposals are encouraged to address livelihood and distributional impacts linked to each nature-positive pathway. Proposals are encouraged to broadly and publicly communicate developed scenarios through interactive simulation interfaces (i.e. at the example of EN-ROADS [2] ). Proposals should create synergies with and build on existing knowledge and results of other relevant EU-funded projects. Proposals should foresee appropriate resources to ensure close cooperation with the EC Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity (KCBD) and its Science Service. To this end, proposals should include dedicated tasks and appropriate resources for coordination measures. This topic is part of a coordination initiative between ESA and the EC on Earth System Science (ESSI). Successful proposals are expected to cooperate with projects that will be selected under ESA's FutureEO programme. To this end, proposals should foresee sufficient means and resources for effective coordination. [1] Biogeographical regions in Europe | European Environment Agency's home page [2] https://www.climateinteractive.org/en-roads/
Destination
This destination will mostly support the EU Commission priority ‘Sustaining our quality of life: food security, water and nature’. The implementation of the EU Green Deal [1] will continue to guide R&I in this destination. R&I will develop knowledge and tools to support the implementation of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 [2] and notably the EU Nature Restoration Regulation [3] , including with the development of nature credits as proposed in the Nature Credits Roadmap [4] . This destination will also address the EU proposal for a Directive on soil monitoring and resilience [5] , the EU proposal for a Regulation on a forest monitoring framework [6] and will inform deliberations on EU biodiversity policy after 2030, thus protecting our natural world. Nature-based Solutions are deep-rooted in this destination, which will support the EU climate adaptation strategy [7] and the EU climate mitigation targets by maintaining or improving natural carbon sinks, since natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally and ecosystems’ carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to their biological diversity. R&I should particularly assess the ecosystems ongoing ability to sequester carbon and, if necessary, focus more on ecosystems that reliably do so while also providing benefits to biodiversity. Actions will contribute to the European Ocean Pact [8] , to the European Water Resilience Strategy [9] and to the EU legislative proposal on pollutants in EU waters [10] (update of chemical substances listed for control). R&I activities for sustainable farming, fishing and aquaculture will be supported in alignment with the Vision for Agriculture and Food [11] , the Vision for Fisheries and Aquaculture towards 2040 [12] , as well as with the environmental objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy [13] and the EU Action Plan for the Development of Organic Production [14] . These efforts will enhance biodiversity and climate-resilient farming practices, ensuring the long-term competitiveness of these sectors within ecological boundaries, and foster innovation to drive sustainable food production. R&I actions under this destination will encourage international cooperation in line with the global approach on R&I, contributing to EU international biodiversity commitments, notably those taken under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) [15] , which defines targets for the medium term (2030) and goals for the long term (2050). This destination will also support the Paris Agreement [16] , the Sustainable Development Goals [17] and the United Nations agreement on biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement) [18] . Support to processes of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) [19] will be continued. Complementarities and synergies will be ensured with the activities supported by the co-funded partnerships Biodiversa+ [20] , Water4All [21] and the co-funded partnership on Agroecology [22] , and LIFE [23] projects, particularly on nature restoration and protection. The destination supports unlocking the unique assets for research and innovation of the EU outermost regions, in line with the EU strategy for outermost regions [24] . Expected impact : Proposals for topics under this destination should set out a credible pathway contributing to “ putting biodiversity on a path to recovery, and protecting and restoring ecosystems and their services ”, and more specifically to one or more of the following expected impacts : Knowledge on biodiversity status and trends and drivers of biodiversity loss is improved; Innovations, methods, pathways, models and tools are available and used to protect healthy and resilient ecosystems and to restore degraded ones, ensuring the continuous provision of ecosystem services, including for adaptation and/or mitigation to climate change; The ongoing biodiversity crisis and its consequences, notably on ecosystem functioning and their services, and the need to monitor, protect, restore and sustainably use biodiversity are better understood to better benefit the whole society in an inclusive way; Policymakers and stakeholders, all relevant economic sectors and society are aware and well informed of relevant challenges and opportunities of biodiversity protection, restoration and sustainable use, leading to better implementation of the biodiversity legislation and better valuation of ecosystem services, leading to transformative change towards a nature positive economy; Farmers, foresters, land and sea managers, fishers and aquaculture producers have access to key information, and test and implement biodiversity-friendly management practices, while safeguarding food and water security and fostering competitiveness, demonstrating the long-term sustainability of these sectors; Progress towards international commitments worldwide on biodiversity is made. [1] The European Green Deal - European Commission [2] Biodiversity strategy for 2030 - European Commission [3] Regulation - EU - 2024/1991 - EN - EUR-Lex [4] EUR-Lex - 52025DC0374 - EN - EUR-Lex [5] EUR-Lex - 52023PC0416 - EN - EUR-Lex [6] Proposal for a Regulation on a Forest Monitoring Framework - European Commission [7] EU Adaptation Strategy - European Commission [8] The European Ocean Pact - European Commission [9] Water resilience strategy - European Commission [10] EUR-Lex - 52022PC0540 - EN - EUR-Lex [11] Vision for Agriculture and Food - European Commission [12] EUR-Lex - 52025DC0075 - EN - EUR-Lex [13] Key policy objectives of the CAP 2023-27 - European Commission [14] Organic action plan - European Commission [15] Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework [16] The Paris Agreement | UNFCCC [17] THE 17 GOALS | Sustainable Development [18] BBNJ Agreement | Agreement on Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction [19] IPBES Home page | IPBES secretariat [20] Biodiversa + [21] Water Security for the Planet [22] Agroecology Partnership [23] LIFE - European Commission [24] COM(2022) Putting people first, securing sustainable and inclusive growth, unlocking the potential of the EU’s outermost regions
Conditions and documents
General conditions
1. Admissibility Conditions: Proposal page limit and layout
2. Eligible Countries
described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.
A number of non-EU/non-Associated Countries that are not automatically eligible for funding have made specific provisions for making funding available for their participants in Horizon Europe projects. See the information in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide.
3. Other Eligible Conditions
described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.
4. Financial and operational capacity and exclusion
described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes.
5a. Evaluation and award: Award criteria, scoring and thresholds
are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes.
5b. Evaluation and award: Submission and evaluation processes
are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual.
5c. Evaluation and award: Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement
described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes.
6. Legal and financial set-up of the grants
Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme – the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027) – and in actions under the Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (2021-2025) [[This decision is available on the Funding and Tenders Portal, in the reference documents section for Horizon Europe, under ‘Simplified costs decisions’ or through this link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/docs/2021-2027/horizon/guidance/ls-decision_he_en.pdf]].
described in Annex G of the Work Programme General Annexes.
Specific conditions
described in the [specific topic of the Work Programme]
Application and evaluation forms and model grant agreement (MGA):
Application form templates — the application form specific to this call is available in the Submission System
Standard application form (HE RIA, IA)
Evaluation form templates — will be used with the necessary adaptations
Standard evaluation form (HE RIA, IA)
Guidance
Model Grant Agreements (MGA)
Call-specific instructions
Additional documents:
HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 1. General Introduction
HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 15. General Annexes
HE Framework Programme 2021/695
HE Specific Programme Decision 2021/764
EU Financial Regulation 2024/2509
Decision authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme
Rules for Legal Entity Validation, LEAR Appointment and Financial Capacity Assessment
EU Grants AGA — Annotated Model Grant Agreement
Funding & Tenders Portal Online Manual
Support information
Online Manual is your guide on the procedures from proposal submission to managing your grant. Horizon Europe Programme Guide contains the detailed guidance to the structure, budget and political priorities of Horizon Europe. Funding & Tenders Portal FAQ – find the answers to most frequently asked questions on submission of proposals, evaluation and grant management. Research Enquiry Service – ask questions about any aspect of European research in general and the EU Research Framework Programmes in particular. National Contact Points (NCPs) – get guidance, practical information and assistance on participation in Horizon Europe. There are also NCPs in many non-EU and non-associated countries (‘third-countries’). Enterprise Europe Network – contact your EEN national contact for advice to businesses with special focus on SMEs. The support includes guidance on the EU research funding. IT Helpdesk – contact the Funding & Tenders Portal IT helpdesk for questions such as forgotten passwords, access rights and roles, technical aspects of submission of proposals, etc. European IPR Helpdesk assists you on intellectual property issues. CEN-CENELEC Research Helpdesk and ETSI Research Helpdesk – the European Standards Organisations advise you how to tackle standardisation in your project proposal. The European Charter for Researchers and the Code of Conduct for their recruitment – consult the general principles and requirements specifying the roles, responsibilities and entitlements of researchers, employers and funders of researchers. Partner Search help you find a partner organisation for your proposal.
Raw budget overview
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