Rethinking long-term care policy in the face of EU demographic shifts

Expected Outcome: Projects should contribute to all of the following expected outcomes: Evaluate the effectiveness and resilience of existing long term-care (LTC) policies at national and regional levels. Provide policy makers with scientific knowledge and data for evidence-informed policies to address the rising demand for affordable, accessible and high-quality long-term care, with the focus on efficient use of resources, including human, financial and technological. Propose new policy solutions to address rising long-term care needs and to ensure smooth (in)formal care transitions, including from the perspective of active and healthy ageing policies and the development of integrated care service provision at local level. Scope: In the EU, the number of people with long-term care needs is projected to increase in the future. In 2070, this number is expected to be 21% higher than in 2020.This increase is largely due to the acceleration of population ageing and also relates to higher needs for palliative care. At the same time, many Member States already struggle to meet all the long-term care needs now due to workforce shortages, which are likely to aggravate in future as the long-term care workforce is itself ageing and the sector is not attractive due to difficult working conditions, limited career development pathways and low professional standards. Scientific evidence from research and innovation (including from SSH disciplines) is needed to help address the increasing demand for long-term care in the EU in the context of shrinking labour resources and increasing pressures on public and private budgets. In line with the European Care Strategy and complementing the activities of the European Partnership on Transforming Health and Care Systems [1] , proposals should: evaluate the effectiveness of existing national/regional long-term care policies in terms of meeting the current long-term care needs through sufficient and adequately skilled long-term care workers, making formal long-term care affordable, accessible and of high quality; in that respect, evaluate the role of integrated care and the interplay of long-term care and other social services; develop robust methodologies to model projections until 2070, for long-term care needs and supply including in terms of workforce and types of services, and corresponding public funding needs for at least 15 EU Member States; quantify the cost of non-action in terms of impact on unmet LTC needs, health and well-being outcomes, and missed opportunities for economic returns; identify and analyse innovative policy mixes, including based on social innovation, to address long-term care needs and long-term care supply challenges, with available and/or new public/private resources, including by tapping into the potential of digitalisation and new technologies. Aspects for consideration may include addressing workforce and skills shortages by increasing the attractiveness of the long-term care sector through improved working conditions and social protection of the long-term care workforce; the deployment of digital solutions including AI-based; investigating the cost-effectiveness in the use of public budgets for health and social care and the role of private funding in the sector. Applicants are encouraged to consider the data offered by European Research Infrastructures in the social sciences domain, [2] as well as the body of LTC policy analysis developed by the European Commission [3] . Where applicable, proposals should leverage the data and services available through European Research Infrastructures federated under the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC), as well as data from relevant Data Spaces. Particular efforts should be made to ensure that the data produced in the context of this topic is FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Re-usable). Applicants aiming to address the implications of demographic changes on health and care systems should check in advance which areas are covered by the Transforming Health and Care Systems partnership and what research the partnership is performing to avoid a duplication of efforts or potential double funding. Proposals should consider the involvement of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) [4] based on its experience and with respect to the value it could bring in providing an effective interface between research activities and policymaking. Proposals should integrate a gender-sensitive and intersectional approach to address the diverse long-term care policy needs of care-recipients and caregivers. To maximise impact and avoid unnecessary duplication, proposals should envisage, as appropriate, cooperation with Horizon Europe projects such as the ones funded by the call topic HORIZON-CL2-2022-TRANSFORMATIONS-01-10, “Socio-economic effects of ageing societies” [5] and the HORIZON-CL2-2023-TRANSFORMATIONS-01-08 call topic entitled “Integrated care solutions leading to better quality, person-centred long-term [6] . [1] See https://www.thcspartnership.eu/ or https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101095654 [2] https://ri-portfolio.esfri.eu/ri-portfolio/table/ [3] https://employment-social-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies-and-activities/social-protection-social-inclusion/social-protection/long-term-care_en [4] DG JRC research activity on long-term care and demography aims to analyse the prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases (such as dementia) and implication on LTC demand and analysis of household composition (family structure changes) and implications on LTC provision. [5] https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/opportunities/topic-details/horizon-cl2-2022-transformations-01-10 [6] https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/opportunities/topic-details/horizon-cl2-2023-transformations-01-08

Projects funded under this destination should contribute to the following expected impacts in the Horizon Europe Strategic Plan 2025-2027 [1] : Strengthening social and economic resilience and sustainability Boosting inclusive growth and reducing vulnerabilities effectively The expected impacts reflect the two-pronged nature of the destination. On the one hand, research funded by this destination will improve the understanding of how the macro drivers of change (technological change, climate change, new global trade patterns, along with migration, human mobility, and other demographic changes) impact society and inform policy makers on how to mitigate negative consequences and harness newly created opportunities. The results obtained should improve the understanding of the interplay between different drivers of change and their social, ethical, political, and economic implications. The improved understanding of these challenges and their economic, social, and distributional impacts will fill in the research gaps while also inform the design and assessment of policies addressing existing and emerging challenges, including in the areas of education, well-being and mental health. On the other hand, research and innovation investment should be geared towards deepening the understanding of how ongoing changes impact society, with a specific emphasis on the key objectives of boosting inclusive and sustainable growth and effectively reducing vulnerabilities, poverty and inequalities. This knowledge should provide valuable insights to policymakers to design and assess policies that effectively address vulnerabilities while capitalizing on emerging opportunities. Overall, the destination’s activities will help promote the EU’s inclusive growth, resilience, and fair transition towards climate neutrality, by providing solid analytical evidence to implementing actions related to: The European Pillar of Social Rights, and its Action Plan with its three ambitious targets (78% employment rate, 60% of population with yearly training, and reduction of the number of people at risk of poverty and social exclusion by at least 15 million by 2030) the European Education Area and its EU-level 2030 targets The Union of Skills (including envisaged initiatives on skills portability and the European Strategy for Vocational Education and Training, the Pact for Skills and the Skills Agenda) the first-ever EU Anti-Poverty Strategy and the European Affordable Housing Plan The Union of Equality policies and strategies, including: the Strategy for the Rights of Persons with Disabilities 2021-2030 [2] (in line with the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities [3] ); the European Accessibility Act (Directive 2019/882), and the European Disability Card The Gender Equality Strategy 2020 – 2025 and the Directive combating violence against women and domestic violence EU Anti-racism Action Plan 2020-2025 The Strategic EU Framework for Roma Equality, Inclusion and Participation 2020-2030 The LGBTIQ Equality Strategy 2020-2025 The Communication on Demographic change in Europe: a toolbox for action The EU’s just transition policy framework, in line with the 2040 Climate Target Plan, including the Just Transition Mechanism, the Social Climate Fund, and the Council Recommendation on ensuring a fair transition towards climate neutrality The new Pact for European Social Dialogue and the Council Recommendation on strengthening social dialogue in the EU. The European Child Guarantee The Council Recommendation on adequate minimum income The Commission Communication on a comprehensive approach to mental health The new Pact on Asylum and Migration and its accompanying actions, initiatives and legislation. A new European Partnership on Social Transformations and Resilience [4] , focused on the social sciences and humanities (SSH), will be launched to make use of their potential to foster resilience, fairness and inclusiveness, and social cohesion in the light of changes in climate and environment, technology, demography, and unexpected shocks. The Partnership will fund research and innovation activities in the areas of the future of work, modernisation of social protection and essential services, education and skills development and a fair transition towards climate neutrality. Applicants are encouraged to consider, where relevant, the services offered by the current and future EU-funded European Research Infrastructures, particularly those in the social sciences and humanities (SSH) domain [5] . Where applicable, proposals should leverage the data and services available through European Research Infrastructures federated under the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC), as well as data from relevant Data Spaces. Particular efforts should be made to ensure that the data produced in the context of this research is FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Re-usable). To maximise the impacts of R&I under this Destination in line with EU priorities, international cooperation is encouraged whenever relevant in the proposed topics. Research on social and economic transformations funded by topics in the present Work Programme will build upon its predecessors in Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe and further push the boundaries of state-of-the-art knowledge. It will do so by further engaging with a vast array of stakeholders, not limited to universities and research centres, but also extending to social partners (trade unions and business organizations), civil society organizations, practitioners, VET providers, and SMEs. The destination will rely on a carefully balanced mix of actions, to bring together a balanced and appropriate set of stakeholders to achieve research of the highest quality, while aiming at providing recommendations to policymakers at European, national, regional and local level that could have a beneficial societal and economic impact. In order to facilitate the latter, it will maximise the feedback to policy and the dissemination and exploitation of research and innovation results and practices in the domain of social and economic transformations. [1] https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/6abcc8e7-e685-11ee-8b2b-01aa75ed71a1/language-en [2] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A52021DC0101 [3] https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/convention-rights-persons-disabilities [4] see topic HORIZON-CL2-2026-02-TRANSFO-01 in this Work Programme [5] https://ri-portfolio.esfri.eu/ for example CESSDA - Consortium of European Social Science Data Archives

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